World Cup 2026 tournament forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Spain win the World Cup in 55% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

South Africa—

Canada100%

Match →

Brazil100%

Japan—

Match →

Germany—

Paraguay100%

Match →

Netherlands—

Morocco100%

Match →

Ivory Coast—

Norway100%

Match →

France100%

Sweden—

Match →

Mexico100%

Ecuador—

Match →

England100%

Congo DR—

Match →

Belgium100%

Senegal—

Match →

USA100%

Bosnia & Herzegovina—

Match →

Spain100%

Austria—

Match →

Portugal100%

Croatia—

Match →

Switzerland100%

Algeria—

Match →

Australia—

Egypt100%

Match →

Argentina100%

Cape Verde Islands—

Match →

Colombia100%

Ghana—

Match →

Round of 16

Canada—

Morocco100%

Match →

Paraguay—

France100%

Match →

Brazil—

Norway100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

France100%

Morocco—

Match →

Spain100%

Belgium—

Match →

Norway—

England100%

Match →

Semi-finals

France—

Spain100%

Match →

England—

Argentina100%

Match →

3rd Place Final

France—

England100%

Match →

Final

Spain55%

Argentina45%

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Spain	2118	55%	100%	100%	100%
2	Argentina	2085	45%	100%	100%	100%
3	Belgium	1905	—	—	—

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works