J-League Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Consadole Sapporo win the J-League Cup in 13% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 128

Sagamihara—

Jubilo Iwata100%

Match →

Gainare Tottori—

Omiya Ardija100%

Match →

FC Gifu—

Tokushima Vortis100%

Match →

Kagoshima United—

Consadole Sapporo100%

Match →

Roasso Kumamoto—

Oita Trinita100%

Match →

Thespakusatsu Gunma—

Albirex Niigata100%

Match →

Nara Club—

Sagan Tosu100%

Match →

Osaka—

Ventforet Kofu100%

Match →

FC Ryukyu—

Yokohama FC100%

Match →

Biwako Shiga—

Tokyo Verdy100%

Match →

Fukushima United—

Vegalta Sendai100%

Match →

Kamatamare Sanuki—

JEF United Chiba100%

Match →

Kochi United—

V-varen Nagasaki100%

Match →

Parceiro Nagano—

Mito Hollyhock100%

Match →

Tochigi SC—

Montedio Yamagata100%

Match →

Matsumoto Yamaga61%

Shonan Bellmare39%

Match →

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Consadole Sapporo	1314	13%	22%	37%	61%
2	Tokyo Verdy	1298	10%	18%	34%	58%
3	Ventforet Kofu	1287	9.3%	17%	31%

• a later round's draw is only partially published; it is simulated as an open draw instead
• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 27 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 15 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works