Emperor Cup 2025 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Machida Zelvia won the Emperor Cup 2025.

Bracket · advance probability per side

1st Round

Oita Trinita100%

Lavenirosso—

Match →

Matsumoto Yamaga100%

Osaka—

Match →

2nd Round

Tokushima Vortis100%

Renofa Yamaguchi—

Match →

Sanfrecce Hiroshima100%

Saga LIXIL—

Match →

Machida Zelvia100%

Kyoto Sangyo University—

Match →

3rd Round

Cerezo Osaka100%

Tokushima Vortis—

Match →

Vissel Kobe100%

Ventforet Kofu—

Match →

Nagoya Grampus100%

Roasso Kumamoto—

Match →

4th Round

FC Tokyo100%

Cerezo Osaka—

Match →

Sanfrecce Hiroshima100%

Shimizu S-pulse—

Match →

Machida Zelvia100%

Kyoto Sanga—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Machida Zelvia100%

Kashima—

Match →

Nagoya Grampus—

Sanfrecce Hiroshima100%

Match →

Sagamihara—

Vissel Kobe100%

Match →

Semi-finals

Machida Zelvia100%

FC Tokyo—

Match →

Vissel Kobe100%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima—

Match →

Final

Machida Zelvia100%

Vissel Kobe—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Machida Zelvia	1520	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Consadole Sapporo	1314	—	—	—	—
3	Jubilo Iwata	1239	—	—	—

• 55 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works