CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Boca Juniors win the CONMEBOL Sudamericana in 25% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Club Nacional50%

Tigre50%

L1 →L2 →

UCV20%

Santos80%

L1 →L2 →

Independiente Medellin51%

Vasco DA Gama49%

L1 →L2 →

Lanus79%

Cienciano21%

L1 →L2 →

Sporting Cristal14%

RB Bragantino86%

L1 →L2 →

Bolívar46%

Gremio54%

L1 →L2 →

Boca Juniors81%

O'Higgins19%

L1 →L2 →

Santa Fe81%

Caracas FC19%

L1 →L2 →

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Boca Juniors	1500	25%	39%	57%	81%
2	RB Bragantino	1447	15%	29%	52%	86%
3	Lanus	1399	8.5%	18%	39%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works