Welsh Cup 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Caernarfon Town won the Welsh Cup 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 128

Pwllheli—

Rhyl100%

Match →

Port Talbot Town100%

Seven Sisters Onllwyn—

Match →

Colwyn Bay100%

Kinmel Bay—

Match →

Pontypridd Town100%

Cefn Cribwr—

Match →

llanelli AFC100%

Haverfordwest County AFC—

Match →

Llandudno100%

Flint Mountain—

Match →

Bow Street—

Flint Town United100%

Match →

Aberystwyth Town—

Barry Town100%

Match →

Bala Town—

GAP Connah S Quay FC100%

Match →

Briton Ferry—

Penybont100%

Match →

Cardiff MET100%

Taffs Well—

Match →

Carmarthen Town100%

Trethomas Bluebirds—

Match →

Holyhead Hotspur—

Airbus UK100%

Match →

Mold Alexandra—

The New Saints100%

Match →

Port Talbot Town100%

Afan Lido—

Match →

Rhyl100%

Brickfield Rangers—

Match →

Newtown AFC—

Caernarfon Town100%

Match →

Round of 32

Cambrian & Clydach—

Penybont100%

Match →

Cardiff MET100%

The New Saints—

Match →

Llandudno100%

GAP Connah S Quay FC—

Match →

Round of 16

Barry Town100%

Gresford Athletic—

Match →

Penybont—

Flint Town United100%

Match →

Pontypridd Town—

Colwyn Bay100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

Flint Town United100%

Trearddur Bay—

Match →

Rhyl100%

Barry Town—

Match →

Caernarfon Town100%

Colwyn Bay—

Match →

Semi-finals

Flint Town United100%

Bangor 1876—

Match →

Rhyl—

Caernarfon Town100%

Match →

Final

Caernarfon Town100%

Flint Town United—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Caernarfon Town	1069	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Aberystwyth Town	822	—	—	—	—
3	Bala Town	938	—	—	—

• 80 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works