DBU Pokalen 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

FC Fredericia win the DBU Pokalen in 30% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 128

Aabybro—

Thisted FC100%

Match →

Aarhus Black Vipers—

Brabrand100%

Match →

Bogense—

Esbjerg100%

Match →

Bredballe—

Middelfart100%

Match →

Brønshøj—

HB Koge100%

Match →

FA 2000—

Fremad Amager100%

Match →

Glamsbjerg—

Kolding IF100%

Match →

Handelsstandens—

Roskilde100%

Match →

Hobro69%

Vendsyssel FF31%

Match →

Holbæk B&I—

AB Copenhagen100%

Match →

Holstebro—

Aalborg100%

Match →

Naestved42%

Hvidovre58%

Match →

Nykobing FC53%

B 9347%

Match →

Odder—

Skive100%

Match →

Ringkøbing—

Aarhus Fremad100%

Match →

SfB-Oure—

FC Fredericia100%

Match →

Tarup-Paarup—

Vejle100%

Match →

Vaeggerlose—

Hillerød100%

Match →

Vallensbæk—

FC Helsingor100%

Match →

Round of 32

drawn each run — random draw

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	FC Fredericia	1352	30%	41%	51%	64%
2	Vejle	1331	24%	37%	47%	61%
3	Esbjerg	1227	8.5%	18%	26%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 70 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 16 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works