CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Palmeiras win the CONMEBOL Libertadores in 28% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 16

Cruzeiro26%

Flamengo74%

L1 →L2 →

Deportes Tolima24%

Independiente del Valle76%

L1 →L2 →

Estudiantes L.P.56%

U. Catolica44%

L1 →L2 →

Fluminense48%

Independ. Rivadavia52%

L1 →L2 →

Mirassol55%

LDU de Quito45%

L1 →L2 →

Palmeiras84%

Cerro Porteno17%

L1 →L2 →

Platense35%

Coquimbo Unido65%

L1 →L2 →

Rosario Central51%

Corinthians49%

L1 →L2 →

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Palmeiras	1624	28%	44%	62%	84%
2	Flamengo	1621	25%	39%	55%	74%
3	Independiente del Valle	1502	7.2%	17%	39%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works