Coppa Italia 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Lazio win the Coppa Italia in 31% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 128

Ascoli100%

Potenza—

Match →

Benevento100%

Ravenna—

Match →

Vicenza Virtus100%

Catania—

Match →

Round of 64

Monza84%

Avellino16%

Match →

Catanzaro80%

Sudtirol20%

Match →

Udinese95%

Padova4.8%

Match →

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Lazio	1713	31%	44%	55%	75%
2	Udinese	1642	16%	29%	40%	64%
3	Torino	1618	13%	26%	37%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 5 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 3 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works