Copa del Rey 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Real Sociedad won the Copa del Rey 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 128

Atlético Tordesillas—

Burgos100%

Match →

Constància—

Girona100%

Match →

Langreo—

Racing Ferrol100%

Match →

SD Logroñés—

Racing Santander100%

Match →

Ucam Murcia—

Cadiz100%

Match →

Inter de Valdemoro—

Getafe100%

Match →

Maracena—

Valencia100%

Match →

Roda—

Granada CF100%

Match →

San Fernando CD—

Albacete100%

Match →

Tropezón—

Cultural Leonesa100%

Match →

RSD Alcalá—

Tenerife100%

Match →

Utebo—

Huesca100%

Match →

SD Negreira—

Real Sociedad100%

Match →

Toledo—

Sevilla100%

Match →

Poblense—

Sabadell100%

Match →

CD Sant Jordi—

Osasuna100%

Match →

Mutilvera—

Zaragoza100%

Match →

Los Garres—

Elche100%

Match →

La Unión Atlético—

AD Ceuta FC100%

Match →

Atlético Astorga—

Mirandes100%

Match →

Azuaga—

Leganes100%

Match →

Caudal—

Sporting Gijon100%

Match →

Lorca Deportiva—

Almeria100%

Match →

Náxara—

Eibar100%

Match →

Numancia100%

Arenas Getxo—

Match →

Sant Just—

Mallorca100%

Match →

Puente Genil—

FC Cartagena100%

Match →

CD Yuncos—

Rayo Vallecano100%

Match →

Ciudad de Lucena—

Villarreal100%

Match →

Real Jaén—

Eldense100%

Match →

Orihuela—

Levante100%

Match →

Puerto de Vega—

Celta Vigo100%

Match →

Valle Egüés—

FC Andorra100%

Match →

Deportivo Getxo—

Alaves100%

Match →

UD Logroñés—

Ponferradina100%

Match →

Atlètic Lleida—

Espanyol100%

Match →

Estepona—

Malaga100%

Match →

Palma del Rio—

Real Betis100%

Match →

Sámano—

Deportivo La Coruna100%

Match →

Round of 64

Ebro—

Osasuna100%

Match →

Numancia—

Mallorca100%

Match →

Portugalete—

Alaves100%

Match →

Round of 32

Deportivo La Coruna100%

Mallorca—

Match →

Eibar—

Elche100%

Match →

Eldense—

Real Sociedad100%

Match →

Round of 16

Cultural Leonesa—

Athletic Club100%

Match →

Deportivo La Coruna—

Atletico Madrid100%

Match →

Real Sociedad100%

Osasuna—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Albacete—

Barcelona100%

Match →

Alaves—

Real Sociedad100%

Match →

Valencia—

Athletic Club100%

Match →

Semi-finals

Athletic Club—

Real Sociedad100%

L1 →L2 →

Atletico Madrid100%

Barcelona—

L1 →L2 →

Final

Atletico Madrid—

Real Sociedad100%

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Real Sociedad	1677	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Barcelona	1987	—	—	100%	100%
3	Atletico Madrid	1836	—	100%	100%

• 72 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works