Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Breidablik win the Cup in 89% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

1st Round

Thróttur Vogar—

Grotta100%

Match →

Álafoss—

Fjolnir100%

Match →

Vikingur Olafsiik100%

Árborg—

Match →

Round of 64

Grotta100%

Úlfarnir—

Match →

Fylkir100%

KV—

Match →

HK Kopavogur100%

BF 108—

Match →

Round of 32

Fylkir100%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir—

Match →

Afturelding100%

Ýmir—

Match →

IBV Vestmannaeyjar—

Throttur Reykjavik100%

Match →

Round of 16

Throttur Reykjavik—

Breidablik100%

Match →

Afturelding100%

Njardvik—

Match →

IA Akranes100%

Grindavik—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Afturelding100%

Stjarnan—

Match →

Ægir—

Breidablik100%

Match →

IA Akranes—

Vikingur Reykjavik100%

Match →

Semi-finals

Breidablik100%

Vikingur Reykjavik—

Match →

Fylkir60%

Afturelding40%

Match →

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Breidablik	1239	89%	100%	100%	100%
2	Fylkir	931	6.6%	60%	100%	100%
3	Afturelding	933	4.7%	40%	100%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 52 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works