FA Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Chengdu Better City win the FA Cup in 24% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Shanghai Second—

SHANGHAI SIPG100%

Match →

Xi'an Ronghai—

Qingdao Youth Island100%

Match →

Shenzhen Juniors—

Sichuan Jiuniu100%

Match →

Guangzhou E-Power—

Beijing Guoan100%

Match →

Langfang Glory City—

Dalian Zhixing100%

Match →

Jiangxi Liansheng—

Henan Jianye100%

Match →

Qingdao Red Lions—

Wuhan Three Towns100%

Match →

Ningbo Professional—

Chongqing Tongliang Long100%

Match →

Wuxi Wugou—

Qingdao Jonoon100%

Match →

Guangxi Hengchen—

Shandong Luneng100%

Match →

Shanghai Zetian—

Chengdu Better City100%

Match →

Hebei Kungfu—

Shanghai Shenhua100%

Match →

Suzhou Dongwu—

Yunnan Yukun100%

Match →

Round of 16

Henan Jianye68%

Dalian Zhixing32%

Match →

Shanghai Shenhua83%

Qingdao Jonoon17%

Match →

Yunnan Yukun29%

Chengdu Better City71%

Match →

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Chengdu Better City	1431	24%	36%	53%	71%
2	Beijing Guoan	1355	18%	35%	64%	100%
3	Shanghai Shenhua	1358	15%	30%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 45 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 1 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works