Cup 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Lask Linz win the Cup in 28% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 64

Dornbirn14%

Ried86%

Match →

Wieselburg—

WSG Wattens100%

Match →

Velden—

Austria Klagenfurt100%

Match →

Deutschlandsberger SC—

SKU Amstetten100%

Match →

SV Lafnitz100%

Scheiblingkirchen—

Match →

Lauterach—

Wolfsberger AC100%

Match →

Leobendorf—

SCR Altach100%

Match →

SV Horn39%

Floridsdorfer AC61%

Match →

Leoben78%

Voitsberg22%

Match →

Tillmitsch—

SKN ST. Polten100%

Match →

Gurten—

FC BW Linz100%

Match →

Seekirchen—

Sturm Graz100%

Match →

Wals-Grünau—

Austria Salzburg100%

Match →

Fach-Donaufeld—

Grazer AK100%

Match →

Hohenems—

WSPG Wels100%

Match →

Kalsdorf—

Lask Linz100%

Match →

Leonfelden—

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz100%

Match →

Wacker Innsbruck100%

SVG Reichenau—

Match →

Oberwart—

Red Bull Salzburg100%

Match →

Krems / Rehberg—

Austria Lustenau100%

Match →

Mattersburg SV 2020—

First Vienna100%

Match →

Treibach—

SV Kapfenberg100%

Match →

SK Vorwarts Steyr100%

Kuchl—

Match →

Imst—

TSV Hartberg100%

Match →

Leithaprodersdorf—

Admira Wacker100%

Match →

Wiener SC—

Austria Vienna100%

Match →

Wienerberg—

Rapid Vienna100%

Match →

Round of 32

drawn each run — random draw

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Lask Linz	1534	28%	41%	57%	72%
2	Sturm Graz	1516	23%	36%	52%	69%
3	Red Bull Salzburg	1481	17%	30%	47%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 34 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 24 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works