Copa Colombia 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Atletico Nacional win the Copa Colombia in 30% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Play-offs

Santa Fe87%

Union Magdalena13%

L1 →L2 →

Atletico Nacional92%

Tigres FC7.9%

L1 →L2 →

Internacional de Bogota100%

Internacional Palmira—

L1 →L2 →

Deportes Tolima89%

Quindio11%

L1 →L2 →

Deportivo Pasto100%

Bogota FC—

L1 →L2 →

Once Caldas80%

Envigado20%

L1 →L2 →

America de Cali100%

Real Cartagena—

L1 →L2 →

Junior100%

Barranquilla—

L1 →L2 →

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Atletico Nacional	1441	30%	47%	68%	92%
2	Deportes Tolima	1371	15%	29%	54%	89%
3	Santa Fe	1373	14%	29%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 10 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 4 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works