US Open Cup 2026 cup forecast
10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
Columbus Crew win the US Open Cup in 30% of 10,000 simulations.
Run your own simulations →Bracket · advance probability per side
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Final
drawn each run — random draw
Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches
| # | Team | Elo | Win | Reach final | Reach SF | Reach QF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Columbus Crew | 1395 | 30% | 48% | 100% | 100% |
| 2 |  Orlando City SC | 1344 | 28% | 52% | 100% | 100% |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 1316 | 26% | 62% |
- future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
- teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
- 63 team(s) without a rating were excluded
Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works
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Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
DC United
Austin
Charlotte