Cup 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Zrinjski won the Cup 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Radnik Hadžići—

FK Sarajevo100%

Match →

Gradina—

Siroki Brijeg100%

Match →

BSK Banja Luka—

Rudar Prijedor100%

Match →

FK Majevica Lopare—

Velež100%

Match →

GOŠK Gabela100%

Tuzla City—

Match →

FK Romanija Pale—

Zrinjski100%

Match →

Grude—

Sloga Doboj100%

Match →

Čelik100%

Posušje—

Match →

Sloboda Tuzla—

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo100%

Match →

FK Crni Vrh Jaružani—

Radnik Bijeljina100%

Match →

Round of 16

GOŠK Gabela45%

Rudar Prijedor55%

Match →

Sloga Doboj100%

Tekstilac Derventa—

Match →

Zrinjski100%

Stupčanica Olovo—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Laktaši—

Radnik Bijeljina100%

L1 →L2 →

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo—

Sloga Doboj100%

L1 →L2 →

FK Sarajevo—

Velež100%

L1 →L2 →

Semi-finals

Radnik Bijeljina—

Zrinjski100%

L1 →L2 →

Velež100%

Sloga Doboj—

L1 →L2 →

Final

Zrinjski100%

Velež—

L1 →L2 →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Zrinjski	1339	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Siroki Brijeg	1093	—	—	—	—
3	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	1133	—	—	—

• 16 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works