Euro Championship 2024 tournament forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Spain won the Euro Championship 2024.

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Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 16

Switzerland100%

Italy—

Match →

Germany100%

Denmark—

Match →

England100%

Slovakia—

Match →

Spain100%

Georgia—

Match →

France100%

Belgium—

Match →

Portugal100%

Slovenia—

Match →

Romania—

Netherlands100%

Match →

Austria—

Türkiye100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

Spain100%

Germany—

Match →

Portugal—

France100%

Match →

England100%

Switzerland—

Match →

Semi-finals

Spain100%

France—

Match →

Netherlands—

England100%

Match →

Final

Spain100%

England—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Spain	2118	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Belgium	1905	—	—	—	—
3	France	2013	—	—	100%

Group phase

Group-by-group projections — free with an account.

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works

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