Cup 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Sabah FA won the Cup 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

2nd Round

Qaradağ Lökbatan—

Imisli FK100%

Match →

Karvan100%

Şəki PFK—

Match →

Kapaz100%

Ağstafa Gəncləri—

Match →

Dinamo Bakı—

Turan100%

Match →

Zaqatala—

Sumqayıt100%

Match →

Səbail—

Şamaxı FK100%

Match →

Qabala100%

Mingəçevir—

Match →

Neftchi Baku100%

MOIK—

Match →

Round of 16

Şahdağ—

Turan100%

Match →

Zira100%

Neftchi Baku—

Match →

Imisli FK—

Sabah FA100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

Sumqayıt—

Zira100%

L1 →L2 →

Sabah FA100%

Qabala—

L1 →L2 →

Şamaxı FK—

Qarabag100%

L1 →L2 →

Semi-finals

Turan—

Zira100%

L1 →L2 →

Qarabag—

Sabah FA100%

L1 →L2 →

Final

Sabah FA100%

Zira—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Sabah FA	1413	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Qarabag	1448	—	—	100%	100%
3	Qabala	1054	—	—	—

• 20 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works