League Cup 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

West Ham win the League Cup in 32% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Preliminary Round

Tranmere50%

Rochdale50%

Match →

York55%

Crawley Town45%

Match →

Round of 128

Bristol City95%

Walsall5.2%

Match →

Wolves97%

Port Vale3.4%

Match →

Wycombe66%

Stevenage34%

Match →

Middlesbrough65%

Wrexham35%

Match →

Cambridge United70%

Barnet30%

Match →

QPR38%

Millwall62%

Match →

AFC Wimbledon84%

Newport County16%

Match →

Barnsley59%

Wigan41%

Match →

Bristol Rovers47%

Peterborough53%

Match →

Bromley33%

Reading67%

Match →

Burnley96%

Notts County4.0%

Match →

Burton Albion31%

Blackburn69%

Match →

Cardiff92%

Swindon Town7.8%

Match →

Crewe72%

Accrington ST28%

Match →

Derby57%

Lincoln43%

Match →

Fleetwood Town48%

Chesterfield52%

Match →

Gillingham11%

Luton89%

Match →

Grimsby40%

Blackpool60%

Match →

Leicester94%

Northampton6.0%

Match →

Leyton Orient37%

Oxford United63%

Match →

Norwich92%

Milton Keynes Dons8.3%

Match →

Preston75%

Huddersfield25%

Match →

Salford City82%

Shrewsbury18%

Match →

Sheffield Wednesday38%

Bolton62%

Match →

Stockport County76%

Doncaster24%

Match →

Stoke City90%

Oldham10%

Match →

Swansea60%

Birmingham40%

Match →

West Ham91%

Portsmouth8.7%

Match →

Cheltenham12%

Charlton88%

Match →

Colchester4.8%

Southampton95%

Match →

Rotherham21%

West Brom79%

Match →

Mansfield Town39%

Sheffield Utd61%

Match →

Plymouth83%

Exeter City17%

Match →

Round of 64

drawn each run — random draw

Round of 32

drawn each run — random draw

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	West Ham	1747	32%	42%	50%	59%
2	Wolves	1647	14%	24%	32%	44%
3	Southampton	1648	14%	23%	31%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works