Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Ordabasy win the Cup in 72% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Ansat—

FK Tobol Kostanay100%

Match →

Jas Qyran—

Atyrau100%

Match →

Talas Karatau—

Kaisar100%

Match →

Akademiya Ontustik—

Ordabasy100%

Match →

BKS—

FC Astana100%

Match →

Jaiyq—

Kairat Almaty100%

Match →

Turan Turkistan—

Yelimay Semey100%

Match →

Karshiga Almaty—

Zhetysu100%

Match →

Chromtau—

Zhenys100%

Match →

Jelaev Nan—

Altay100%

Match →

Arys—

Aktobe100%

Match →

Ekibastuz—

Kaspiy100%

Match →

Shakhter Karagandy—

Okzhetpes100%

Match →

Taraz—

Ulytau100%

Match →

Khan Tengri—

Kyzyl-Zhar100%

Match →

Round of 16

Okzhetpes—

Zhenys100%

Match →

Irtysh—

Kyzyl-Zhar100%

Match →

Atyrau—

Zhetysu100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

Aktobe—

Altay100%

Match →

Zhenys100%

Kyzyl-Zhar—

Match →

Kaisar100%

FK Tobol Kostanay—

Match →

Semi-finals

Ordabasy97%

Altay2.9%

L1 →L2 →

Kaisar36%

Zhenys64%

L1 →L2 →

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Ordabasy	1295	72%	97%	100%	100%
2	Zhenys	1149	19%	64%	100%	100%
3	Kaisar	1086	8.4%	36%	100%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 11 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works