King's Cup 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win the King's Cup in 35% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Al-Adalah50%

Al-Fayha50%

Match →

Al Anwar—

Al-Ahli Jeddah100%

Match →

Al Bukayriyah—

Al-Hazm100%

Match →

Al Diriyah—

Al-Nassr100%

Match →

Al-Faisaly FC62%

NEOM38%

Match →

Al Jabalain—

Al-Ettifaq100%

Match →

Al Najma15%

Al-Ittihad FC85%

Match →

Al Okhdood47%

Al Khaleej Saihat53%

Match →

Al Orubah62%

Abha38%

Match →

Al-Raed4.2%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC96%

Match →

Al Taee12%

Al-Qadisiyah FC88%

Match →

Al Ula—

Al-Fateh100%

Match →

Al Wehda Club48%

Al Shabab52%

Match →

Al Zulfi—

Al Riyadh100%

Match →

Damac38%

Al Taawon62%

Match →

Jeddah Club—

Al Kholood100%

Match →

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1768	35%	51%	68%	83%
2	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1726	25%	43%	64%	83%
3	Al-Nassr	1721	24%	42%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 7 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 7 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works