Africa Cup of Nations 2025-26 tournament forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Morocco won the Africa Cup of Nations 2025-26.

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Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 16

Senegal100%

Sudan—

Match →

Mali100%

Tunisia—

Match →

Morocco100%

Tanzania—

Match →

South Africa—

Cameroon100%

Match →

Egypt100%

Benin—

Match →

Nigeria100%

Mozambique—

Match →

Algeria100%

Congo DR—

Match →

Ivory Coast100%

Burkina Faso—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Mali—

Senegal100%

Match →

Cameroon—

Morocco100%

Match →

Algeria—

Nigeria100%

Match →

Semi-finals

Senegal100%

Egypt—

Match →

Nigeria—

Morocco100%

Match →

3rd place

Egypt—

Nigeria100%

Match →

Final

Senegal—

Morocco100%

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Morocco	1887	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Senegal	1762	—	100%	100%	100%
3	Nigeria	1748	—	—	100%

Group phase

Group-by-group projections — free with an account.

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works

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