Cup 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Vaprus win the Cup in 21% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 128

Trans Narva100%

Vana Hea Puur—

Match →

Järva-Jaani—

Elva100%

Match →

Round of 64

Tabasalu Ulasabat—

Vaprus100%

Match →

Hiiumaa—

Tulevik100%

Match →

Trans Narva100%

Flora II—

Match →

Läänemaa Haapsalu—

Elva100%

Match →

Viimsi100%

Nomme Utd U19—

Match →

Laagri100%

Rae Spordikool—

Match →

Kuressaare100%

Welco X—

Match →

Nõmme United100%

Raplamaa—

Match →

Tammeka Tartu U19—

Tallinna Kalev100%

Match →

Tammeka100%

Zealot Sporting—

Match →

Saku Sporting—

Legion100%

Match →

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Vaprus	972	21%	33%	44%	68%
2	Tammeka	930	14%	24%	36%	62%
3	Laagri	915	12%	22%	32%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 55 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 11 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works