Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Riga win the Cup in 52% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 64

Iecava—

JDFS Alberts100%

Match →

Valmiera / BSS100%

Skanste—

Match →

Lielupe—

Metta / LU100%

Match →

Round of 32

Metta / LU100%

Ķekava / Auda—

Match →

Smiltene—

Valmiera / BSS100%

Match →

Round of 16

Metta / LU100%

Spēks—

Match →

Leevon / PPK—

Riga100%

Match →

Auda100%

FK Liepaja—

Match →

Quarter-finals

BFC Daugavpils78%

Ogre United22%

Match →

Auda89%

Grobiņa11%

Match →

Riga98%

Metta / LU2.1%

Match →

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Riga	1377	52%	78%	98%	100%
2	Rīgas FS	1351	42%	71%	94%	100%
3	Auda	1099	4.8%	31%	89%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 20 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works