Coupe de France 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Lens won the Coupe de France 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

1/128-finals

Cannes—

Annecy100%

Match →

Olympique de Villefontaine—

Grenoble100%

Match →

OCPAM—

Reims100%

Match →

Auby—

Amiens100%

Match →

France Aizenay—

Estac Troyes100%

Match →

Pontarlier—

Sochaux100%

Match →

Lavaur—

Rodez100%

Match →

US Chateau-Malo—

Bastia100%

Match →

Saint-Colomban Locminé—

Guingamp100%

Match →

Les Bleuets—

Concarneau100%

Match →

Ivry—

Le Mans100%

Match →

Orleans100%

Bayonne—

Match →

Steenvoorde—

Chambly Thelle FC100%

Match →

Trélissac—

PAU100%

Match →

Atlas Paillade—

Bourg-en-bresse 01100%

Match →

Le Cellier Mauves—

Laval100%

Match →

Biars-Bretenoux—

Chateauroux100%

Match →

Quetigny—

Saint Etienne100%

Match →

Agde—

Montpellier100%

Match →

Boulogne—

Dunkerque100%

Match →

Boé Bon Encontre—

Bordeaux100%

Match →

Forbach—

RED Star FC 93100%

Match →

Nancy100%

GSA Tomblaine—

Match →

Round of 128

Concarneau100%

Stade Briochin—

Match →

Annecy—

Grenoble100%

Match →

Sarreguemines—

Nancy100%

Match →

Round of 64

Canet Roussillon—

Montpellier100%

Match →

Guingamp—

Laval100%

Match →

Croix Football IC—

Reims100%

Match →

Round of 32

Angers—

Toulouse100%

Match →

Bastia—

Estac Troyes100%

Match →

Montreuil—

Amiens100%

Match →

Round of 16

Reims100%

Le Mans—

Match →

Marseille100%

Rennes—

Match →

Lorient100%

Paris FC—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Strasbourg100%

Reims—

Match →

Lorient—

Nice100%

Match →

Marseille—

Toulouse100%

Match →

Semi-finals

Lens100%

Toulouse—

Match →

Strasbourg—

Nice100%

Match →

Final

Lens100%

Nice—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Lens	1795	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Angers	1528	—	—	—	—
3	Bordeaux	1398	—	—	—

• 155 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 2 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works