Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Kauno Žalgiris win the Cup in 71% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

1st Round

Nevėžis—

Dainava100%

Match →

Sendvaris—

Neptūną Klaipėda100%

Match →

Šilutė—

Be1 NFA100%

Match →

Utenos Utena—

Jonava100%

Match →

2nd Round

Tauras—

Hegelmann Litauen100%

Match →

Jonava—

Šiauliai100%

L1 →L2 →

Vilniaus Vytis—

Banga100%

Match →

Round of 16

Klaipėdos FM—

Dainava100%

Match →

FK Trakai—

Kauno Žalgiris100%

Match →

Džiugas Telšiai100%

Banga—

Match →

Quarter-finals

BFA—

Kauno Žalgiris100%

Match →

Šiauliai100%

Džiugas Telšiai—

Match →

Dainava100%

TransINVEST Vilnius—

Match →

Semi-finals

Šiauliai24%

Kauno Žalgiris76%

Match →

Minija—

Dainava100%

Match →

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Kauno Žalgiris	1265	71%	76%	100%	100%
2	Šiauliai	1032	18%	24%	100%	100%
3	Dainava	908	11%	100%	100%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• unresolved replays are simulated as a single match decided by extra time and penalties
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 40 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 1 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works