David Kipiani Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Saburtalo win the David Kipiani Cup in 29% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 64

Dmanisi—

WIT Georgia100%

Match →

Guria100%

Merani Tbilisi—

Match →

Round of 32

Margveti 2006—

Saburtalo100%

Match →

Dinamo Tbilisi II—

Spaeri100%

Match →

Gonio—

Meshakhte100%

Match →

Kolkheti Poti100%

Aragvi Dusheti—

Match →

Irao—

Dinamo Batumi100%

Match →

Basa—

Gareji100%

Match →

Gori—

Sioni100%

Match →

Guria26%

Dinamo Tbilisi74%

Match →

Iberia 2010—

Dila100%

Match →

Merani Martvili100%

Odishi 1919—

Match →

Samtredia100%

Shturmi—

Match →

WIT Georgia30%

Samgurali70%

Match →

Saburtalo II—

Telavi100%

Match →

Iveria Khashuri—

Torpedo Kutaisi100%

Match →

Varketili—

Rustavi100%

Match →

Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe—

Gagra100%

Match →

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Saburtalo	1271	29%	43%	59%	79%
2	Dila	1225	19%	33%	51%	74%
3	Torpedo Kutaisi	1190	14%	26%	45%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 28 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 14 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works