Cupa 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Sheriff Tiraspol won the Cupa 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Floreşti100%

EFA Visoca—

Match →

Făleşti—

Victoria Bardar100%

Match →

FCM Ungheni100%

Steaua Nordului—

Match →

Iskra100%

Congaz—

Match →

Oguzsport—

Olimp Comrat100%

Match →

Sireți100%

Atletico Bălți—

Match →

FC Stăuceni100%

FC National Ialoveni—

Match →

Univer Comrat100%

Constructorul Leova—

Match →

Round of 16

Spartanii Selemet100%

Iskra—

Match →

CSF Bălți100%

Victoria Bardar—

Match →

Dacia-Buiucani100%

FC Stăuceni—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Zimbru100%

Politehnica UTM—

L1 →L2 →

Milsami Orhei100%

Spartanii Selemet—

L1 →L2 →

Petrocub100%

CSF Bălți—

L1 →L2 →

Semi-finals

Petrocub—

Sheriff Tiraspol100%

L1 →L2 →

Zimbru100%

Milsami Orhei—

L1 →L2 →

Final

Sheriff Tiraspol100%

Zimbru—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	1351	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Milsami Orhei	1116	—	—	100%	100%
3	Petrocub	1299	—	—	100%

• 6 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works