Copa Do Brasil 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Palmeiras win the Copa Do Brasil in 43% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

1/128-finals

Joinville100%

CSA—

Match →

Fortaleza EC100%

Maguary PE—

Match →

Atletico Goianiense100%

Primavera MG—

Match →

Novorizontino100%

Nacional AM—

Match →

Londrina100%

Penedense—

Match →

Tombense100%

Oratório—

Match →

Imperatriz—

Amazonas100%

Match →

São Bernardo100%

Atlético Alagoinhas—

Match →

Gama—

Goias100%

Match →

Ceara100%

Primavera SP—

Match →

CRB100%

Porto BA—

Match →

Figueirense100%

Azuriz—

Match →

Velo Clube—

Vila Nova100%

Match →

Avai100%

Porto Vitória—

Match →

Betim—

Operario-PR100%

Match →

Rio Branco ES—

Athletic Club100%

Match →

Ivinhema—

Volta Redonda100%

Match →

America Mineiro100%

Tirol/CEFAT—

Match →

Desportiva ES—

Sport Recife100%

Match →

Juventude100%

Guaporé—

Match →

Round of 128

Joinville—

São Bernardo100%

Match →

Ponte Preta100%

Guarany de Bagé—

Match →

Athletic Club100%

Ypiranga-RS—

Match →

Round of 64

Nova Iguaçu—

Fortaleza EC100%

Match →

São Bernardo—

Ceara100%

Match →

Londrina—

Operario-PR100%

Match →

Round of 32

Botafogo—

Chapecoense-sc100%

L1 →L2 →

Sao Paulo—

Juventude100%

L1 →L2 →

Gremio100%

Confiança—

L1 →L2 →

Round of 16

Vasco DA Gama23%

Fluminense77%

L1 →L2 →

Atletico-MG65%

Juventude35%

L1 →L2 →

Santos65%

Remo35%

L1 →L2 →

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Palmeiras	1624	43%	59%	74%	91%
2	Cruzeiro	1498	13%	28%	53%	91%
3	Fluminense	1497	11%	24%	45%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 78 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works