Australia Cup 2026 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Melbourne City win the Australia Cup in 21% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 32

Preston Lions—

Newcastle Jets100%

Match →

Lions—

Perth Glory100%

Match →

Bayswater City—

Sydney100%

Match →

Sydney United—

Central Coast Mariners100%

Match →

Cooma Tigers FC—

Western Sydney Wanderers100%

Match →

Uni Azzurri—

Macarthur100%

Match →

Weston Bears—

Melbourne City100%

Match →

Kingborough Lions—

Melbourne Victory100%

Match →

South Melbourne—

Adelaide United100%

Match →

Sydney Olympic—

Brisbane Roar100%

Match →

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Melbourne City	1319	21%	34%	46%	65%
2	Newcastle Jets	1299	18%	32%	43%	63%
3	Melbourne Victory	1292	16%	29%	41%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 22 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 10 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works