Taça da Liga 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Sporting CP win the Taça da Liga in 37% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Quarter-finals

Benfica95%

GIL Vicente5.0%

Match →

SC Braga79%

Famalicao21%

Match →

FC Porto98%

Academico Viseu2.4%

Match →

Sporting CP98%

Maritimo1.9%

Match →

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Sporting CP	1853	37%	62%	98%	100%
2	Benfica	1826	30%	56%	95%	100%
3	FC Porto	1792	23%	50%	98%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works