Premier League season forecast
10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
The New Saints win the league in 85% of 10,000 simulations.
| Team | Elo | Pts | Proj Pts | Title | Bottom 3 | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The New Saints | 1317 | 0 | 85.2 | 85% | — | |
 GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1156 | 0 | 67.9 | 9.2% | 0.1% | |
 Barry Town | 1082 | 0 | 58.5 | 1.9% | 0.5% | |
 Caernarfon Town | 1069 | 0 | 56.8 | 1.8% | 0.9% | |
 Haverfordwest County AFC | 1048 | 0 | 54.5 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
 Penybont | 1036 | 0 | 53.0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | |
 Colwyn Bay | 1005 | 0 | 49.3 | 0.3% | 4.4% | |
 Briton Ferry | 987 | 0 | 47.4 | 0.2% | 5.9% |
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Finishing position distribution
The full finishing-position heatmap — free with an account.
Sign in freeForecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · phase-2 fixtures synthesized — the championship/relegation draw isn't made yet · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions — injuries and rotation are invisible to it. How it works