10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
Sirius win the league in 78% of 10,000 simulations.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | Model (1 X 2) | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 1 11%X 22%2 67% | 0–1 | ||
| 20 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 1 25%X 27%2 48% | 1–1 | ||
| 24 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 1 64%X 23%2 13% | 1–0 | ||
| 25 Jul 2026, 13:00 | 1 15%X 23%2 61% | 0–1 | ||
| 25 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 1 15%X 23%2 61% | 0–1 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 | 1 68%X 21%2 10% | 1–0 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 | 1 17%X 24%2 59% | 0–1 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1 58%X 24%2 17% | 1–0 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1 74%X 19%2 7% | 1–0 | ||
| 27 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 1 45%X 28%2 27% | 1–1 | ||
| 01 Aug 2026, 13:00 | 1 61%X 24%2 15% | 1–0 | ||
| 02 Aug 2026, 12:00 | 1 63%X 23%2 14% | 1–0 | ||
| 02 Aug 2026, 12:00 | 1 25%X 27%2 48% | 1–1 | ||
| 02 Aug 2026, 14:30 | 1 67%X 22%2 11% | 1–0 |
See how much each fixture swings the title and relegation races — with Pro.
Go Pro — €3.99/moModel’s most-likely outcome hit 48 of 103 rated matches this season (47%).
| 4–0 |
1 79%X 17%2 4% |
| ✓ |
| 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1–3 | 1 26%X 27%2 47% | ✓ |
| 18 Jul 2026, 13:00 | 2–0 | 1 39%X 29%2 32% | ✓ |
| 17 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 0–0 | 1 75%X 19%2 6% | ✗ |
| 17 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 2–1 | 1 53%X 26%2 21% | ✓ |
| 13 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 3–0 | 1 77%X 18%2 5% | ✓ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1–0 | 1 54%X 25%2 20% | ✓ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1–2 | 1 19%X 25%2 56% | ✓ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 12:00 | 2–0 | 1 72%X 20%2 8% | ✓ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 12:00 | 2–0 | 1 54%X 25%2 20% | ✓ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 12:00 | 4–0 | 1 56%X 25%2 19% | ✓ |
| 11 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 4–3 | 1 16%X 24%2 60% | ✗ |
| 11 Jul 2026, 13:00 | 1–2 | 1 70%X 21%2 9% | ✗ |
| 06 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 2–4 | 1 41%X 29%2 30% | ✗ |
| 06 Jul 2026, 17:00 | 1–1 | 1 27%X 28%2 45% | ✗ |