La Liga season forecast
10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
Barcelona win the league in 58% of 10,000 simulations.
| Team | Elo | Pts | Proj Pts | Title | Bottom 3 | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 1987 | 0 | 92.0 | 58% | — | |
 Real Madrid | 1944 | 0 | 87.8 | 34% | — | |
 Atletico Madrid | 1836 | 0 | 75.3 | 5.6% | — | |
 Villarreal | 1744 | 0 | 62.9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
 Real Betis | 1735 | 0 | 61.4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
 Celta Vigo | 1695 | 0 | 55.9 | 0.2% | 2.3% | |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1695 | 0 | 55.8 | 0.2% | 2.4% | |
 Valencia | 1693 | 0 | 55.6 | 0.2% | 2.4% |
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Finishing position distribution
The full finishing-position heatmap — free with an account.
Sign in freeForecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · head-to-head tiebreaks approximated as GD→GF · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions — injuries and rotation are invisible to it. How it works