Cup 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Arsenal Tula win the Cup in 61% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 64

Anzhi100%

Izberbash—

Match →

Kirovets Voskhozhdenie—

FC Tosno100%

Match →

Round of 32

Amkar100%

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod—

Match →

Irtysh Omsk100%

Saturn Ramenskoye—

Match →

Quarter-finals

Shinnik Yaroslavl—

Torpedo Moskva100%

Match →

Tekstilshchik—

Arsenal Tula100%

Match →

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach QF	Reach R32
1	Arsenal Tula	1158	61%	100%	100%	—
2	Torpedo Moskva	1085	39%	100%	100%	—
3	CSKA Moscow	1434	—	—	—

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 54 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 6 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works