10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
The Strongest win the league in 46% of 10,000 simulations.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | Model (1 X 2) | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026, 00:30 | 1 51%X 26%2 23% | 1–1 | ||
| 20 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 1 54%X 25%2 20% | 2–1 | ||
| 20 Jul 2026, 23:00 | 1 67%X 22%2 11% | 2–1 | ||
| 21 Jul 2026, 23:00 | 1 59%X 24%2 17% | 2–1 | ||
| 24 Jul 2026, 23:00 | 1 64%X 23%2 14% | 2–1 | ||
| 25 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 1 77%X 18%2 5% | 1–0 | ||
| 25 Jul 2026, 21:15 | 1 52%X 26%2 22% | 1–1 | ||
| 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 | 1 54%X 26%2 21% | 2–1 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 1 67%X 22%2 12% | 2–1 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 21:15 | 1 85%X 14%2 1% | 1–0 | ||
| 26 Jul 2026, 23:30 | 1 18%X 24%2 58% | 1–2 | ||
| 27 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 1 54%X 25%2 20% | 2–1 | ||
| 31 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 1 33%X 29%2 38% | 1–1 | ||
| 31 Jul 2026, 23:00 | 1 54%X 25%2 21% | 2–1 | ||
| 01 Aug 2026, 19:00 | 1 40%X 29%2 31% | 1–1 | ||
| 01 Aug 2026, 21:15 | 1 40%X 29%2 31% | 1–1 | ||
| 01 Aug 2026, 23:30 | 1 70%X 21%2 9% | 2–1 |
See how much each fixture swings the title and relegation races — with Pro.
Go Pro — €3.99/moModel’s most-likely outcome hit 39 of 75 rated matches this season (52%).
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Model said (1 X 2) | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2026, 00:30 | 2–2 | 1 60%X 24%2 16% | ✗ | ||
| 18 Jul 2026, 19:00 |
| 4–0 |
1 80%X 17%2 3% |
| ✓ |
| 18 Jul 2026, 00:00 | 4–0 | 1 77%X 18%2 5% | ✓ |
| 16 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 3–1 | 1 28%X 28%2 45% | ✗ |
| 16 Jul 2026, 00:00 | 2–1 | 1 78%X 17%2 4% | ✓ |
| 15 Jul 2026, 22:00 | 5–0 | 1 30%X 29%2 41% | ✗ |
| 15 Jul 2026, 00:00 | 1–1 | 1 50%X 27%2 24% | ✗ |
| 14 Jul 2026, 22:00 | 0–6 | 1 16%X 24%2 60% | ✓ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 23:30 | 2–1 | 1 34%X 30%2 36% | ✗ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 21:15 | 1–1 | 1 37%X 30%2 33% | ✗ |
| 12 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 1–1 | 1 15%X 23%2 62% | ✗ |
| 11 Jul 2026, 19:00 | 3–1 | 1 41%X 29%2 30% | ✓ |
| 10 Jul 2026, 00:00 | 2–0 | 1 55%X 25%2 20% | ✓ |
| 09 Jul 2026, 00:00 | 3–1 | 1 39%X 29%2 32% | ✓ |
| 08 Jul 2026, 22:00 | 4–1 | 1 47%X 27%2 26% | ✓ |
| 07 Jul 2026, 23:00 | 3–2 | 1 48%X 27%2 25% | ✓ |