Premier League season forecast
10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
Arsenal win the league in 54% of 10,000 simulations.
| Team | Elo | Pts | Proj Pts | Title | Bottom 3 | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2066 | 0 | 86.0 | 54% | — | |
 Manchester City | 2013 | 0 | 79.7 | 26% | — | |
 Aston Villa | 1937 | 0 | 69.4 | 6.3% | 0.1% | |
 Manchester United | 1925 | 0 | 68.1 | 5.3% | 0.1% | |
 Liverpool | 1889 | 0 | 62.9 | 2.5% | 0.6% | |
 Bournemouth | 1871 | 0 | 60.3 | 1.6% | 0.8% | |
 Newcastle | 1846 | 0 | 56.7 | 0.8% | 1.7% | |
 Brighton | 1842 | 0 | 56.1 | 0.7% | 1.8% |
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Finishing position distribution
The full finishing-position heatmap — free with an account.
Sign in freeForecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions — injuries and rotation are invisible to it. How it works