FA Cup 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Manchester City won the FA Cup 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Extra Preliminary Round

Bury100%

South Liverpool—

Match →

Preliminary Round

Stalybridge Celtic—

Bury100%

Match →

2nd Round Qualifying

Bedford Town—

Dagenham & Redbridge100%

Match →

Macclesfield100%

Atherton Laburnum Rovers—

Match →

2nd Round Qualifying Replays

Dagenham & Redbridge100%

Bedford Town—

Match →

3rd Round Qualifying

Macclesfield100%

Nantwich Town—

Match →

Farnham Town—

Sutton Utd100%

L1 →L2 →

Carlisle100%

Boston United—

Match →

1/128-finals

Luton100%

Forest Green—

Match →

Barnsley100%

York—

Match →

Blackpool100%

Scunthorpe—

Match →

Round of 128

Salford City100%

Leyton Orient—

Match →

Accrington ST—

Mansfield Town100%

Match →

Cheltenham100%

Buxton—

Match →

Round of 64

Milton Keynes Dons—

Oxford United100%

Match →

Port Vale100%

Fleetwood Town—

Match →

Preston—

Wigan100%

Match →

Round of 32

Hull City—

Chelsea100%

Match →

Wrexham100%

Ipswich—

Match →

Burton Albion—

West Ham100%

Match →

Round of 16

Wolves—

Liverpool100%

Match →

Mansfield Town—

Arsenal100%

Match →

Wrexham—

Chelsea100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

Manchester City100%

Liverpool—

Match →

Chelsea100%

Port Vale—

Match →

Southampton100%

Arsenal—

Match →

Semi-finals

Manchester City100%

Southampton—

Match →

Chelsea100%

Leeds—

Match →

Final

Chelsea—

Manchester City100%

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Manchester City	2013	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Manchester United	1925	—	—	—	—
3	Newcastle	1846	—	—	—

• 643 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 2 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works