KNVB Beker 2025-26 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

AZ Alkmaar won the KNVB Beker 2025-26.

Bracket · advance probability per side

2nd Preliminary Round

Den Bosch100%

ADO Den Haag—

Match →

Gemert—

Fortuna Sittard100%

Match →

Capelle—

Roda100%

Match →

HHC—

FC OSS100%

Match →

Helmond Sport—

PEC Zwolle100%

Match →

Sparta Nijkerk—

Almere City FC100%

Match →

VVV Venlo—

Heerenveen100%

Match →

Quick Boys—

FC Volendam100%

Match →

FC Lisse—

Telstar100%

Match →

NAC Breda—

Heracles100%

Match →

Waalwijk100%

Cambuur—

Match →

Rijnsburgse Boys—

NEC Nijmegen100%

Match →

Sparta Rotterdam100%

Groningen—

Match →

Willem II100%

Dordrecht—

Match →

ROHDA Raalte—

Twente100%

Match →

Round of 32

PEC Zwolle—

AZ Alkmaar100%

Match →

Heracles100%

Hoogeveen—

Match →

AFC Amsterdam—

NEC Nijmegen100%

Match →

Round of 16

Utrecht—

Twente100%

Match →

Den Bosch—

PSV Eindhoven100%

Match →

Almere City FC—

Telstar100%

Match →

Quarter-finals

AZ Alkmaar100%

Twente—

Match →

NEC Nijmegen100%

FC Volendam—

Match →

PSV Eindhoven100%

Heerenveen—

Match →

Semi-finals

NEC Nijmegen100%

PSV Eindhoven—

Match →

AZ Alkmaar100%

Telstar—

Match →

Final

AZ Alkmaar100%

NEC Nijmegen—

Match →

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	AZ Alkmaar	1616	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	PEC Zwolle	1443	—	—	—	—
3	Ajax	1635	—	—	—

• 75 team(s) without a rating were excluded

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works