Primeira Liga season forecast
10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions
Sporting CP win the league in 44% of 10,000 simulations.
| Team | Elo | Pts | Proj Pts | Title | Bottom 3 | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting CP | 1853 | 0 | 83.3 | 44% | — | |
 Benfica | 1826 | 0 | 81.3 | 31% | — | |
 FC Porto | 1792 | 0 | 78.5 | 20% | — | |
 SC Braga | 1710 | 0 | 70.8 | 4.8% | — | |
 Famalicao | 1577 | 0 | 55.7 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
 Guimaraes | 1502 | 0 | 46.9 | — | 3.3% | |
 Arouca | 1480 | 0 | 43.8 | — | 6.4% | |
 GIL Vicente | 1477 | 0 | 43.7 | — | 6.1% |
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Finishing position distribution
The full finishing-position heatmap — free with an account.
Sign in freeForecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons · head-to-head tiebreaks approximated as GD→GF · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions — injuries and rotation are invisible to it. How it works