DFB Pokal 2026-27 cup forecast

10,000 Monte Carlo runs · updated nightly · model probabilities, not predictions

Bayern München win the DFB Pokal in 64% of 10,000 simulations.

Bracket · advance probability per side

Round of 64

Waldhof Mannheim19%

1. FC Kaiserslautern81%

Match →

Preußen Münster44%

Karlsruher SC56%

Match →

SC St. Tönis—

Eintracht Frankfurt100%

Match →

Hansa Rostock5.6%

VfB Stuttgart94%

Match →

Energie Cottbus14%

FC Augsburg86%

Match →

SV Wehen1.7%

Bayer Leverkusen98%

Match →

Erzgebirge Aue1.9%

1899 Hoffenheim98%

Match →

MSV Duisburg21%

SV Elversberg79%

Match →

Hemelingen—

Hannover 96100%

Match →

Lüneburger SK Hansa—

Werder Bremen100%

Match →

FC Saarbrücken21%

Hertha BSC79%

Match →

FC Viktoria Köln24%

1. FC Nürnberg76%

Match →

Eintracht Trier—

RB Leipzig100%

Match →

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach16%

Arminia Bielefeld84%

Match →

TSV 1860 München25%

Holstein Kiel75%

Match →

SpVgg Greuther Fürth43%

VfL Bochum57%

Match →

SSV Jeddeloh—

1. FC Heidenheim100%

Match →

Bahlinger SC—

1. FC Magdeburg100%

Match →

Eintracht Braunschweig21%

Union Berlin79%

Match →

FC Carl Zeiss Jena11%

SV Darmstadt 9889%

Match →

Krieschow—

FSV Mainz 05100%

Match →

Schott Mainz—

Borussia Mönchengladbach100%

Match →

Westfalia Rhynern—

Dynamo Dresden100%

Match →

Fortuna Düsseldorf12%

SC Freiburg88%

Match →

Phönix Lübeck—

SC Paderborn 07100%

Match →

Rot-Weiß Essen25%

FC St. Pauli75%

Match →

Altglienicke—

VfL Wolfsburg100%

Match →

Verl17%

Hamburger SV83%

Match →

Würzburger Kickers7.4%

1. FC Köln93%

Match →

Hallescher FC10%

FC Schalke 0490%

Match →

HEBC—

Borussia Dortmund100%

Match →

VfL Osnabrück1.3%

Bayern München99%

Match →

Round of 32

drawn each run — random draw

Round of 16

drawn each run — random draw

Quarter-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Semi-finals

drawn each run — random draw

Final

drawn each run — random draw

Winner odds · P(lift the trophy) and how far each side reaches

#	Team	Elo	Win	Reach final	Reach SF	Reach QF
1	Bayern München	2095	64%	73%	81%	88%
2	Borussia Dortmund	1870	11%	27%	46%	66%
3	Bayer Leverkusen	1841	7.5%	22%

• future rounds use a random draw; real draws apply seedings and country protections not modelled here
• teams entering in later rounds are not yet included
• 12 team(s) without a rating were excluded
• 12 tie(s) were awarded to the rated side over an unrated opponent

Forecast from 19 Jul 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs · model sim-1.9.0 · model probabilities, not predictions. How it works