European pyramid 2026-27
One linked Monte Carlo run of the whole European ladder — the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League simulated together, with qualifying trickle-down: sides knocked out of Champions League qualifying fall into the Europa League, Europa League losers into the Conference League.
10,000-run nightly forecast · seed 1 · model sim-1.9.0 · refreshed 19 Jul 2026 · model probabilities, not predictions.
Champion odds
Champions League · who lifts the trophy
| # | Team | Win | Final | Top 8 | Top 16 | Top 24 | Reach LP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 29% | 46% | 86% | 98% | 100% | 100% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 22% | 37% | 81% | 97% | 100% | 100% |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 11% | 23% | 69% | 93% | 99% | 100% |
| 4 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 11% | 23% | 67% | 93% | 99% | 100% |
| 5 |  FC Barcelona | 7.4% | 16% | 56% | 89% | 97% | 100% |
| 6 |  Real Madrid | 4.2% | 10% | 42% | 80% | 94% | 100% |
| 7 |  Aston Villa | 3.6% | 9.5% | 48% | 82% | 95% | 100% |
| 8 |  Manchester United | 2.8% | 7.6% | 44% | 79% | 94% | 100% |
| 9 |  Internazionale | 2.5% | 7.1% | 39% | 76% | 93% | 100% |
| 10 |  Liverpool | 1.5% | 4.5% | 34% | 70% | 90% | 100% |
| 11 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1.1% | 3.4% | 30% | 65% | 88% | 100% |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 0.9% | 2.6% | 23% | 58% | 84% | 100% |
| 13 |  Atlético Madrid | 0.5% | 1.6% | 17% | 50% | 78% | 100% |
| 14 |  PSV Eindhoven | 0.4% | 1.4% | 18% | 48% | 77% | 100% |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 0.4% | 1.2% | 17% | 46% | 76% | 100% |
| 16 |  Club Brugge | 0.2% | 0.9% | 13% | 42% | 73% | 100% |
| 17 |  RB Leipzig | 0.2% | 0.6% | 13% | 40% | 73% | 100% |
| 18 |  FC Porto | 0.2% | 0.7% | 12% | 39% | 70% | 100% |
| 19 |  Napoli | 0.2% | 0.8% | 12% | 41% | 73% | 100% |
| 20 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0.2% | 0.7% | 13% | 40% | 72% | 100% |
Europa League · who lifts the trophy
| # | Team | Win | Final | Top 8 | Top 16 | Top 24 | Reach LP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bournemouth | 24% | 37% | 78% | 96% | 99% | 100% |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 16% | 29% | 68% | 92% | 98% | 100% |
Conference League · who lifts the trophy
| # | Team | Win | Final | Top 8 | Top 16 | Top 24 | Reach LP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 34% | 50% | 78% | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| 2 |  Atalanta | 19% | 33% | 69% | 87% | 90% |
Projected league phase
Projected pots and full league-phase standings for all three competitions — free with an account.
Where do the qualifiers land? · 166 teams still in qualifying · sorted by P(Champions League league phase)
UCL league phaseUEL league phaseUECL league phaseOut (eliminated)
AEK Athens65%
35%
Viking61%
- League-phase table tiebreaks resolve Pts → GD → GF → seeded coin; UEFA's post-GF criteria are approximated (tiebreakApprox).
- Qualifying and league-phase draws are seeded reproductions of UEFA's real procedure; real DB results always win.
- League-phase draw relaxed the max-2-opponents-per-association cap in 2 of 10000 run(s).
- League-phase draw relaxed a keep-apart association pairing in 2 of 10000 run(s).
- League-phase draw relaxed the own-association ban (UEFA Art 16.03 deadlock analog) in 2 of 10000 run(s).
- 29 entrant(s) seeded on their association's coefficient floor (no club coefficient).
- 47 pending config tie(s) superseded by materialized fixtures.
Benfica
Juventus
Crystal Palace
AC Milan
1899 Hoffenheim
Olympique Marseille
Stade Rennais
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sunderland
Olympique Lyon
Bodo/Glimt
Celta de Vigo
FC Midtjylland
Real Sociedad
Olympiakos Piraeus
Fenerbahçe
AZ Alkmaar
PAOK
SC Freiburg
AS Monaco
SC Braga
Getafe
Ajax
Twente
FC Copenhagen
Panathinaikos
Ferencvarosi TC
FC Nordsjaelland
İstanbul Başakşehir
Trabzonspor
Viktoria Plzeň
Beşiktaş
Sint-Truiden
